[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181821
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT 18 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM JEANNE...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...
RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING WHEN IT APPEARED THAT JEANNE
WAS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...UNEXPECTEDLY...SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE CENTER BECAME DETACHED FROM THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z ...THE APPARENT CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM JEANNE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR 21.0N 74.0W...JUST WEST OF GREAT
INAGUA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AND IF A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CONFIRMS THIS LOCATION...JEANNE
MAY BE WEAKER THAN INDICATED AT THIS TIME. JEANNE IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 45 KT GUSTS
55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB. SEE LATEST
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC OR MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

HURRICANE KARL CENTER NEAR 15.2N 39.3W AT 18/1500 UTC...MOVING
NORTHWEST 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 36W AND 43W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 25W...IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...SOUTH OF 18N...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N
TO 16N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT...THROUGH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS ALONG 60W/61W SOUTH OF 23N. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N
TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...IN THE
DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM T.S. JEANNE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W/99W SOUTH OF 21N...MOVING WESTWARD
10 TO 15 KT THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FROM 21N TO 24N
BETWEEN 94W AND 99W...ARE IN AN AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 12N TO 13N ALONG 16W...TO
12N21W 14N36W...FROM 13N40W TO 10N52W...FROM 9N70W TO 9N89W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 79W AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ
ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 10N BETWEEN 12W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM ORLANDO TO TAMPA ACROSS FLORIDA AT
18/1500 UTC...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. STATIONARY
FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO AND BEYOND EAST TEXAS.
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 30N75W TO SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER DRY AIR IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EAST OF 90W. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE AREA FROM
21N TO 24N BETWEEN 94W AND 99W...IN AN AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WEST OF THE TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 23N74W...
JUST NORTHWEST OF T.S. JEANNE...TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
17N85W OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS. DRY AIR AROUND THIS
COASTAL EASTERN HONDURAS CYCLONIC CENTER NORTH OF 16N WEST OF
80W. THE 60W/61W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...IN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM T.S. JEANNE.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC....
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 31N57W TO 27N62W TO CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 23N74W...JUST
NORTHWEST OF T.S. JEANNE...TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
17N85W OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS. DRY AIR AROUND THIS
COASTAL EASTERN HONDURAS CYCLONIC CENTER NORTH OF 16N WEST OF
80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...
EMBEDDED IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WEST OF 15W...FROM 20N
TO 37N BETWEEN 6W AND 30W. TROUGH FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 39N30W TO 34N32W...TO A SECOND
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
27N33W...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EITHER ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE KARL AND/OR TROPICAL WAVES...FOLLOW EACH OTHER ONE BY
ONE...FROM AFRICA WESTWARD. THE FIRST CLUSTER GOES FROM 5N TO
12N BETWEEN 8W AND 18W. THE SECOND CLUSTER...WITH THE 25W
TROPICAL WAVE...GOES FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. THE
THIRD CLUSTER IS WITH HURRICANE KARL...FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN
36W AND 43W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 10N
BETWEEN 12W AND 35W.

$$
MT


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