[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 181748
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

...JEANNE ON A WEAKENING TREND AGAIN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING WHEN IT APPEARED THAT JEANNE WAS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...UNEXPECTEDLY...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
THAT THE CENTER BECAME DETACHED FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT
2 PM EDT...1800Z ...THE APPARENT CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  74.0 WEST...
JUST WEST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THIS
POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IF A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CONFIRMS
THIS LOCATION... JEANNE MAY BE WEAKER THAN INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

THE CENTER OF JEANNE APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 50 MPH... 85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. STRENGTHENING
IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JEANNE.
CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OCCURRING WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...21.0 N... 74.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR  7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA


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