[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 182012
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

THE FORECAST REASONING IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BE ERODED BY AN
APPROACHING AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  THIS
WILL ALLOW KARL TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ERODED
RIDGE AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 OR 5.  ONLY THE
GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102/90/90 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT.  KARL CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED EYE...BANDING FEATURES
AND OUTFLOW.  THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS STABLE...BUT
THE OUTER BANDING DEEP CONVECTION COMES AND GOES.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND INCREASES THE WIND SPEED TO
115 KT IN 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND
WEAKENING AFTER 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      18/2100Z 15.9N  40.2W    95 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.7N  41.6W   105 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.6N  43.8W   110 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.4N  45.5W   115 KT
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N  47.0W   115 KT
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 22.5N  48.5W   110 KT
 96HR VT     22/1800Z 27.0N  48.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     23/1800Z 33.0N  45.0W    85 KT


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