[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 171420
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

THE CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED ON EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT
A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS FROM NORTHERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS STILL INLAND.  A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS RAIN-FLAGGED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 60 KT
OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE ADVISORY INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 287/07 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE ERODING OVER THE NEXT
3 DAYS AS THE STRONG MID-LEVEL REMANT OF IVAN DROPS SOUTHWARD.
THIS RESULTS IN JEANNE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT LESS THAN 10
KT.  AN INTERACTION BETWEEN JEANNE AND IVAN IS SUGGESTED BY DAY 3
AS THE CENTERS OF THE TWO SYSTEMS COME WITHIN ABOUT 700 N MI OF
EACH OTHER.  MEANWHILE A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. WHICH CUTS OFF THE NORTHWARD MOTION OF JEANNE AND THE GFDL...
NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS SEND JEANNE MORE WESTWARD.  THE GFS IS AN
EXCEPTION SHOWING A DUE NORTHWARD MOTION FOR 3 DAYS FOLLOWED BY
NEARLY STATIONARY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A
LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST FOR 12 HOURS AND THEN
IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THEREAFTER IN AGREEMENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODEL.

WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST FOR 2 DAYS BY THE GFS MODEL FOLOWED
BY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  SO JEANNE HAS ABOUT 2 DAYS TO
STRENGTHEN OVER WARM WATER AND THE FORECAST BRINGS THE WIND TO 80
KT BY DAY 3.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/1500Z 19.5N  71.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 20.2N  72.2W    55 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 22.2N  73.3W    60 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 23.8N  74.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 25.0N  74.6W    70 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 28.0N  75.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 29.2N  77.3W    80 KT
120HR VT     22/1200Z 29.5N  80.0W    75 KT


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