[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 162035
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/7 AS JEANNE CONTINUES TO EDGE INLAND OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  DESPITE ITS TREK OVER
LAND...IT HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE VISIBLE ON THE
SAN JUAN NWS RADAR WITH EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES.  CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED HOWEVER...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE WINDS HAVE
DROPPED JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.

THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
RIGHT-LEANING GFS AND LEFT-LEANING GFDL MODELS.  THIS
AFTERNOON...THE GFS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE GFDL SHIFTED
EASTWARD...SIGNIFICANTLY NARROWING THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
THAT THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST TO DEFLECT JEANNE'S TRACK TO THE RIGHT IN 2-3 DAYS.
HOWEVER...BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN ABOUT 5 DAYS
ARE EXPECTE TO PREVENT JEANNE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA.  WITH THE
FIVE DAY FORECAST POINT NEAR THE U.S. COASTLINE...THIS MIGHT BE A
GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE FIVE DAY NHC OFFICIAL
FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 375 MILES...IN OTHER WORDS...IT IS STILL
TOO SOON TO BE SURE WHAT PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES MIGHT BE
AFFECTED BY JEANNE.

THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT AROUND JEAN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGHLY
DIVERGENT FLOW THAT WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING AFTER JEANNE CLEARS
HISPANIOLA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND
GFDL GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/2100Z 19.0N  69.3W    60 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.5N  70.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 20.4N  72.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 21.4N  73.9W    60 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 22.5N  75.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 25.0N  77.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 28.5N  78.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 32.0N  80.5W    80 KT


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