[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 162035
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  58
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE IVAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.  WSR-88D DOPPLER WINDS FROM
BIRMINGHAM SHOW 50-65 KT ABOVE THE SURFACE.  BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT.  IVAN SHOULD WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HR.  IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY ABOUT 72 HR...ALTHOUGH SOME REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THEREAFTER.

DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IVAN
WILL CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DECELERATE THROUGH 48 HR...
AND THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD BY 72 HR.  BASED ON THIS...THE FORECAST
TRACK MOVES THE CENTER A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR BEING JUST A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THE REMAINS OF IVAN WILL GO AFTER 72 HR.

IVAN WILL REMAIN A MAJOR RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/2100Z 33.1N  87.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 34.5N  85.9W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 35.6N  84.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 36.3N  82.2W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 36.3N  80.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 35.0N  80.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     20/1800Z...INLAND


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