[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161813
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU 16 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IVAN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IVAN
NOW NEAR 32.6N 87.1W OR ABOUT 45 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
MONTGOMERY ALABAMA...AT 16/1800 UTC...MOVING NORTH 12 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  975 MB...
28.79 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL BE DIMINISHING
TODAY. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
LIKELY ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. MAXIMUM RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH IVAN THROUGH SATURDAY. TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN EASTERN ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
WESTERN GEORGIA...AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC OR MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
IVAN MADE LANDFALL NEAR GULF SHORES ALABAMA AT 0700 UTC.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL INLAND
OVER ALABAMA FROM 31.5N TO 34.5N BETWEEN 85.5W AND 88W.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS NEAR 18.8N 69.0W OR INLAND
ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. JEANNE IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST
NEAR  7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. JEAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY AS A RESULT OF ITS ENCOUNTER WITH HISPANIOLA...BUT
SHOULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY. SEE LATEST NHC
PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC OR MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 40 TO 50 NM
RADIUS OF 19N69W IN THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 25 TO 35 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 19N64W 17N66W 16N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
WELL AWAY FROM THE STORM...FROM WEST OF ST. LUCIA TO 21N
BETWEEN 59W AND 64W.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS ALONG 30W SOUTH OF 20N HAS BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD AT LEAST ONE DEGREE OF LONGITUDE EVERY SIX HOURS
DURING THE LAST TWENTY FOUR HOURS. AN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WAS NEAR 11N ALONG THE WAVE. THIS WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
OF THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH STARTS FROM
A CANARY ISLANDS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TOWARD THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...TOWARD 13N30W. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH APPEARS
TO BE DISAPPEARING LITTLE BY LITTLE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 25 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N29W 14N31W...
WITHIN 25 TO 35 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N31W 13N33W...AND WITHIN
40 TO 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N33W 10N35W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N
BETWEEN 32W AND 33W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N
TO 14N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W...
ESPECIALLY WITH A LINE OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W FROM 14N NEAR WESTERN
EL SALVADOR SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP LAYER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS PRESENT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ FROM NORTHERN SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W TO 12N28W 9N46W 7N54W
AND 11N62W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N74W
TO 10N87W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 43W...FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM HURRICANE IVAN EXTENDS
AS FAR NORTH AS 40N80W...CURVING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
WEST OF 70W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 15N79W TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 20N WEST
OF 90W...AND FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 27N BETWEEN
86W AND 90W.

REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
15N76W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM JEANNE COVERS
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N53W TO A SECOND ONE NEAR 26N57W...
AND THEN THE TROUGH IS COVERED BY THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW FROM JEANNE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...AND THEN BEGINS
TO BE WRAPPED INTO THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THIS 26N57W CENTER.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N50W 25N58W. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS NORTHEAST BEYOND 30N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 48W AND
58W...ALONG WITH THE OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS FROM JEANNE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N
TO 22N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W...AND WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 30N42W 28N45W 28N49W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N34W. CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 60 TO
120 NM RADIUS OF THIS CENTER.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TOWARD THE 30W
TROPICAL WAVE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

$$
MT

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