[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 161430
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  57
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

...IVAN MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA AND WEAKENING...

AT 10 CDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.  ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED
ELSEWHERE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.5 WEST OR ABOUT  65 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR  75 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND IVAN WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE EMERGENCY
OPERATIONS CENTER IN DEMOPOLIS ALABAMA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 72 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN THROUGH SATURDAY.

TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN EASTERN ALABAMA...
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WESTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN TENNESSEE...
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...32.0 N... 87.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


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