[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 161440
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU SEP 16 2004

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS JEANNE
SCRAPES THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ALSO ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
PUERTO PLATA TO ISLA SAONA.

AT 11 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTH
COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM
LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS TO WEST OF PUERTO PLATA...AND FROM ISLA SAONA
TO SANTO DOMINGO.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM WEST OF PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO MONTE
CRISTO AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...
130 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

JEANNE IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR  7 MPH
...11 KM/HR.  A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JEANNE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JEAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RESULT OF ITS ENCOUNTER WITH HISPANIOLA...BUT
SHOULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO  70 MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE SUBSIDING ALONG THE COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE DAY.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY
HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...18.8 N... 68.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR  7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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