[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 161430
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  57
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

35.2N  85.7W      36  X  X  X 36   MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  1  3  5  9
36.5N  84.0W      13  6  1  1 21   CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  3  5  8
37.0N  82.5W       2 12  2  2 18   NORFOLK VA         X  X  3  6  9
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  2  2   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  1  5  6
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  1  2  3   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X  5  5
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  1  2  2  5   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X  3  3
SAVANNAH GA        1  4  2  3 10   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X  2  2
CHARLESTON SC      X  5  3  3 11   ST MARKS FL        X  X  1  1  2
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  4  4  4 12   PENSACOLA FL      99  X  X  X 99
WILMINGTON NC      X  2  5  4 11   MOBILE AL         99  X  X  X 99

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7AM FRI TO  7PM FRI
C FROM  7PM FRI TO  7AM SAT
D FROM  7AM SAT TO  7AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


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