[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 151738
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  53A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH
OF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING
THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

IVAN CONTINUES AS AS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE HURRICANE SCALE...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT IVAN IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER.
OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED AT THE
SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A
30-STORY BUILDING. AFTER LANDFALL... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD TO
SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES.  THE C-MAN STATION AT
SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH IN
THE PAST HOUR.

THE LATEST PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 939
MB...27.73 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...27.8 N... 88.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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