[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 151748
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST WED SEP 15 2004

...JEANNE MAKES LANDFALL OVER PUERTO RICO AS A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
FROM CABREERA SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABRERA TO
PUERTO PLATA...AND FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
WEST OF ISLA SAONA TO SANTO DOMINGO.  A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  66.1 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES...  40 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE CENTER OF JEANNE MADE LANDFALL ON
PUERTO RICO NEAR YABUCOA.  THE FORECAST MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC AND NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY SUSTAINED AT HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.  SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
ONCE JEANNE MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND IT COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.  SAN JUAN RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO 63 MPH...101 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF JEANNE.  THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...18.1 N... 66.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


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