[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 151657 CCA
HLSMOB
ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-151900-

HURRICANE IVAN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICNE IVAN TAKES AIM AT ALABAMA COAST ...
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... AND
ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN
FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA
COUNTIES OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 AM CDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.6 N AND LONGITUDE 88.0 W...OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND ALABAMA.  IVAN WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF MOBILE BAY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WHICH MAKES IVAN A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE.  WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR...IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST AS A
STRONG CATEGORY 3...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 130 MPH.  THESE
EXTREME WINDS WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE AREA (SEE DETAILS
BELOW).

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
CRITICAL INFORMATION...A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR
RESIDENTS OF BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

FOR ADDITIONAL EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND THE LATEST CLOSINGS
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION AND/OR RADIO STATIONS.  THIS
INFORMATION IS BEING UPDATED BY THE LOCAL MEDIA AS THEY RECEIVE IT.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME...EVACUATIONS AND OTHER PERSONAL PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN TAKEN AND COMPLETED.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MOBILE BAY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL CAUSE A STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FT  ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ALABAMA COAST...WITH A SURGE NEAR 18 FT
POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER PART OF MOBILE BAY.  FLOODING OF DOWNTOWN
MOBILE FROM THE MOBILE RIVER WEST TO BEYOND BROAD STREET IS
POSSIBLE.  MUCH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND WILL BE FLOODED...AS WELL AS MUCH
OF THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA.  LESSER BUT STILL SERIOUS STORM SURGE
FLOODING WILL ALSO OCCUR IN GULF SHORES AND ORANGE BEACH ALONG THE
ALABAMA COAST...AND  FROM PENSACOLA TO DESTIN IN THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE A STORM SURGE NEAR 10 FT IS POSSIBLE.  WITH
REGARD TO ESCAMBIA BAY NEAR PENSACOLA...A GENERAL 4 TO 6 FT SURGE
IS LIKELY TO OCCUR...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 8 FEET IN THE UPPER END OF
THE BAY.

REMEMBER...WHEN TIDE LEVELS RISE TO 3 FEET...THE CAUSEWAY BETWEEN
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES AND THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND WILL
BEGIN TO FLOOD.  TIDE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FEET WILL ALSO FLOOD THE
ROAD LEADING TO FORT PICKENS ON PENSACOLA BEACH IN ESCAMBIA COUNTY.
WATER LEVELS WITH HURRICANE IVAN WILL LIKELY BE EQUAL TO OR GREATER
THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED IN HURRICANE FREDERIC IN 1979.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF ALABAMA IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE...WITH
PEAK WINDS OF 130 TO 140 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WHEN IVAN MAKES
LANDFALL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN EXTREME DAMAGE
TO STRUCTURES NEAR THE COAST AND EXTENSIVE DAMAGE FURTHER
INLAND...ESPECIALLY TO MOBILE HOMES.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH OR MORE...ARE MOVING INTO  THE
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTS AT THE PEESENT TIME
AND SHOULD INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE...75 MPH OR HIGHER...LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  ONCE THE ONSET OF
IVAN'S WINDS BEGINS......THE COASTAL COUNTIES CAN EXPECT AN
ESTIMATED 32 TO 38 HOURS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH AND
ABOUT 12 TO 16 HOURS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.  THE WIND IMPACT WILL
ALSO BE VERY HIGH FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.  INLAND HURRICANE WIND
WARNINGS ARE ALSO NOW IN EFFECT AS COUNTIES VERY NEAR THE TRACK CAN
EXPERIENCE 5 TO 10 HOURS OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS AND
COUNTIES FURTHER AWAY UP TO 5 HOURS.

...RIP CURRENT THREAT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.   RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8
TO 10 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING AS MUCH AS
15 INCHES OF RAIN.  IF IVAN SLOWS DOWN PRIOR TO AND\OR AFTER
LANDFALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EASILY APPROACH 20 INCHES IN A
FEW SPOTS.  PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS OR NEAR
CREEKS OR STREAMS SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING UNTIL IVAN HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA.  FLOOD WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED UNTIL
THIS EVENING...BUT MAY BE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY. REMEMBER... TURN
AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF THIS MAGNITUDE COMBINED WITH THESE EXPECTED
RAINFALL VALUES...WILL CREATE A CONDITION WHEREBY RIVERS WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO DRAIN AS NORMAL.  THUS...INLAND RIVER FLOODING MAY BECOME A
MAJOR PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTER
IVAN PASSES.  PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING OR RECREATIONAL
BOATING UNTIL THE EFFECTS OF IVAN ARE NO LONGER AFFECTING THE REGION.

...TORNADO THREAT...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COASTAL IN IMMEDIATE INLAND
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE ARE LIKELY FROM NOW UNTIL IVAN MOVES INLAND AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF ALABAMA.

...NEXT UPDATE...

AS IVAN APPROACHES...SHORT TERM FORECASTS OF IVAN'S IMPACTS SUCH AS
WINDS AND TIDES BE CONTAINED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PRODUCT
BHMNOWMOB).  PLEASE REFER TO THIS PRODUCT OFTEN IN ADDITION TO THIS
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 700 PM CDT
THIS EVENING.

MCKEE

$$





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