[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 151427
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION CONCLUDED AT 12Z...AND THE NEXT
AIRCRAFT WILL BE ARRIVING MOMENTARILY.  PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF
127 KT DURING THE LAST PASS SUPPORT ABOUT 115 KT AT THE
SURFACE...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE 50 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS.  COMPETING INFLUENCES MAKE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST DIFFICULT.  THE HURRICANE IS NOW PASSING
OVER A WARM GULF EDDY WHICH COULD AID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH
DATA COLLECTED BY A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT YESTERDAY SUGGEST THE
EDDY MAY NOT BE AS POTENT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT USING SATELLITE
MEASUREMENTS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL-ESTABLISHED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH NO SHEAR EVIDENT.  ON
THE OTHER HAND...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE WEST
SEMICIRCLE THAT COULD STILL PENETRATE THE CORE...AND THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR LANDFALL.  THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT I
EXPECT SOME NET WEAKENING OF IVAN PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT STILL
EXPECT IT TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/11...AND IVAN LOOKS TO BE MAKING
THE EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN.  IVAN REMAINS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A BIT FASTER TO THE COASTLINE.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UNTIL WELL AFTER
LANDFALL...WHERE THERE ARE A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE
REMNANTS OF IVAN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLOODING EVENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/1500Z 27.3N  88.0W   115 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 28.9N  88.2W   115 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 31.0N  87.9W    90 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 32.8N  87.4W    55 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 34.0N  86.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 35.5N  84.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 35.5N  84.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     20/1200Z 35.5N  84.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING


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