[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 151428
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  88.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

31.0N  87.9W      39  X  X  X 39   TAMPA FL           X  X  1  2  3
32.8N  87.4W      20  5  1  X 26   CEDAR KEY FL       X  1  2  3  6
34.0N  86.5W       5 11  3  1 20   ST MARKS FL        2  4  3  2 11
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  2  2   APALACHICOLA FL    7  4  2  1 14
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  2  2   PANAMA CITY FL    15  2  1  1 19
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  1  3  4   PENSACOLA FL      38  X  X  X 38
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  2  4  6   MOBILE AL         43  X  X  X 43
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  1  6  7   GULFPORT MS       39  X  X  X 39
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  6  6   BURAS LA          38  X  X  X 38
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  5  5   NEW ORLEANS LA    19  X  1  X 20
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  4  4   NEW IBERIA LA      1  1  X  1  3
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 85W       6  4  1  1 12
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 87W      49  X  X  X 49
NORFOLK VA         X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 89W      74  X  X  X 74
VENICE FL          X  X  1  1  2   GULF 28N 91W       1  1  X  X  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7AM THU TO  7PM THU
C FROM  7PM THU TO  7AM FRI
D FROM  7AM FRI TO  7AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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