[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 141842 CCA
HLSMOB
ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-150000-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED FOR BALDWIN CO EVACUATION INFO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
140 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004


...THE IMPACT OF HURRICANE IVAN MAY EQUAL OR EXCEED THAT OF
HURRIICANE FREDERIC...
...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA.  THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM MOBILE TO
DESTIN...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... AND
ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES
IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES
IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 10 AM CDT...THE EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED ABOUT
465 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA. IVAN WAS MOVING
NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IVAN HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE BIT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 140
MPH...WHICH STILL MAKES IVAN A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CRITICAL INFORMATION...A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR
BALDWIN COUNTY ALABAMA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

FOR ADDITIONAL EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND THE LATEST CLOSINGS
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION AND\OR RADIO STATIONS. THIS
INFORMATION IS BEING UPDATED AS OFTEN AS IT IS RECEIVED. RESIDENTS
WHO PLAN ON EVACUATING SHOULD DO SO BY NOON WEDNESDAY.  IN
ADDITION...RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE ALL OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT COULD
BECOME AIRBORNE AND BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
WHEN IVAN MAKES LANDFALL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...A MAXIMUM STORM
SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
COASTLINE WITH WATER LEVELS OF 8 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  WHEN TIDE LEVELS RISE TO 3 FEET... THE
CAUSEWAY AND THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND BEGIN TO FLOOD. TIDE
HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FEET WILL ALSO FLOOD THE ROAD LEADING TO FORT
PICKENS ON PENSACOLA BEACH IN ESCAMBIA COUNTY.

IF THE SURGE REACHES 8 TO 10 FEET PORTIONS OF DAUPHIN ISLAND WILL BE
BREACHED AS WILL PARTS OF PENSACOLA BEACH. WATER LEVELS WITH
HURRICANE IVAN WILL LIKELY BE EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN THOSE THAT
OCCURRED WITH HURRICANE FREDERIC IN 1979...WHICH IS THE BENCHMARK
STORM FOR THE MOBILE AREA.    IF THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE
IVAN IS ACCURATE...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING WILL OCCUR OVER DAUPHIN
ISLAND AND OVER THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA...WITH SERIOUS COASTAL
FLOODING ALSO OCCURRING OVER GULF SHORES AND ORANGE BEACH.
SIGNIFICANT BUT LESSER FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA COASTLINE.

...WIND IMPACT...
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF ALABAMA IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE...WITH
PEAK WINDS OF 130 TO 140 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WHEN IVAN MAKES
LANDFALL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN EXTREME DAMAGE
TO STRUCTURES NEAR THE COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH SHOULD ARRIVE ALONG THE THE
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE CURRENT ORIENTATION AND FORECAST
TRACK OF IVAN...THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA CAN EXPECT AN ESTIMATED 30 TO 36 HOURS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH OR MORE...AND ABOUT 10 TO 15 HOURS OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR MORE.  THE WIND IMPACT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.  WIND ADVISORIES AND\OR WARNINGS WILL BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR INLAND AREAS AS IVAN MOVES NORTHWARD (IE..FOR
THE NON-COASTAL COUNTIES).



...RIP CURRENT THREAT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS DUE TO HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND TO DESTIN. PEOPLE ARE
DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING OR RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL THE EFFECTS
OF IVAN ARE NO LONGER AFFECTING THE REGION.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS (ESPECIALLY JUST EAST
OF IVAN'S TRACK).  IF IVAN SLOWS PRIOR TO AND AFTER LANDFALL...
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD EASILY APPROACH 20 INCHES ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.
PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS OR NEAR CREEKS OR
STREAMS SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING UNTIL IVAN HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA.  REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF THIS MAGNITUDE COMBINED WITH THESE EXPECTED
RAINFALL VALUES...WILL CREATE A CONDITION WHEREBY RIVERS WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO DRAIN AS NORMAL.  THUS...INLAND RIVER FLOODING MAY BECOME A
MAJOR PROBLEM ALONG AND EAST OF IVAN'S TRACK...ESPECIALLY IF IVAN
WERE TO SLOW DOWN AFTER LANDFALL.  THIS SITUATION IS BEING CLOSELY
MONITORED.

...TORNADO THREAT...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS OF IVAN...ESPECIALLY IN THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST
OF IVAN'S CENTER AS THE STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 7 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING.

MCKEE

$$





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