[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 141823
HLSTLH

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-142200-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
221 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...

...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAINT MARKS RIVER WEST
TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE SAINT MARKS
RIVER TO DESTIN AND THEN WEST TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A FLOOD WATCH
AND AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IVAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND IVAN REMAINS AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 260 MILES. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 931 MB...OR 27.49 INCHES.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING AREAS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASING WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF IVAN...WITH 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW LYING
AREAS...AND NEAR SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. IN ADDITION...MAIN STEM
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. RAINFALL FROM
TROPICAL STORM FRANCIS GENERATED ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ON THE FLINT
RIVER AND KINCHAFOONEE AND MUCKALEE CREEKS. RAINFALL FROM FRANCIS
MOSTLY MISSED THE CHATTAHOOCHEE...PEA...CHOCTAWHATCHEE...
APALACHICOLA...AND CHIPOLA RIVER BASINS...WHERE FLOWS ARE STILL
RELATIVELY LOW. OF SPECIAL CONCERN IS THAT IVAN WILL BE ARRIVING
WHILE FLOWS ARE STILL RELATIVELY HIGH ON THE FLINT RIVER BASIN. THIS
WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RISES. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE FOLLOWING BASINS
COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY IVAN.

IN ALABAMA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND PEA RIVER BASINS.

IN GEORGIA...THE FLINT RIVER...KINCHAFOONEE CREEK...AND MUCKALEE
CREEK.

IN FLORIDA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE...APALACHICOLA...CHIPOLA...AND
OCHLOCKONEE RIVERS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE WATCH AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
ON THIS TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE
GULF COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPREADING OVER PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DURING THIS TIME.


...TORNADO THREAT...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF IVAN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE COAST COULD
REACH 5 TO 7 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST FOR IVAN. AN EVEN HIGHER SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE BAYS...INCLUDING WEST BAY AND NORTH BAY.

LOCAL TIDES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...

EAST PASS (DESTIN)...
HIGH TIDE...1236 AM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...859 PM WEDNESDAY AND 933 AM THURSDAY.

SAINT ANDREW BAY (PANAMA CITY)
HIGH TIDE...1206 AM AND 1152 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...628 PM WEDNESDAY...AND 702 AM THURSDAY.

APALACHICOLA...
HIGH TIDE...524 AM AND 608 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...1134 PM WEDNESDAY...1224 AM AND 1156 PM THURSDAY.

SAINT GEORGE ISLAND (SIKES CUT)...
HIGH TIDE...426 AM AND 510 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...1012 PM WEDNESDAY...1024 AM AND 1034 PM THURSDAY.

OCHLOCKONEE BAY...
HIGH TIDE...416 AM AND 441 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...958 PM WEDNESDAY...1015 AM AND 1024 PM THURSDAY.

SHELL POINT...
HIGH TIDE...340 AM AND 405 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...936 PM WEDNESDAY...953 AM AND 1002 PM THURSDAY.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE...343 AM AND 408 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...939 PM WEDNESDAY...956 AM AND 1005 PM THURSDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS...
A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL EXIST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEACHES DUE TO INCREASED WAVE
ACTION AND BUILDING SWELLS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE...FLORIDA AROUND 6 PM EDT (5 PM
CDT).

$$

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