[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WWCA31 TJSJ 141006
HLSSJU
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-141330-

BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2004

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN NEARING TROPICAL STORM STATUS...

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...FOR VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AND FOR THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO FROM FAJARDO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH SALINAS.

SMALL CRAFT IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD REMAIN
IN PORT.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED OR
NEAR COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH 24 HOURS OR LESS.

...STORM UPDATE...
AT 500 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER ELEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST OR ABOUT 190
MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX...220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS...230
MILES SOUTHEAST OF VIEQUES...235 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CULEBRA...290
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 12 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...50 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...
POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...CAN BE EXPECTED IN OCCASIONAL
SQUALLS AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BASED ON THE OFFICIAL
TRACK...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN IS FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS
JUST NORTHEAST OF ST CROIX AROUND 800 PM THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD
PLACE THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE WATER JUST NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF
THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER
ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS ST CROIX...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS AND
SQUALLS. THE CENTER IS THEN FORECAST TO PASS NEAR ST THOMAS AND ST
JOHN AROUND MIDNIGHT...WHICH WOULD PUT THESE ISLANDS IN SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...BUT STRONGEST IN
GUSTS AND SQUALLS AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS VIEQUES THEN SPREAD WEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO. BASED
ON THE OFFICIAL TRACK...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN IS FORECAST TO
HAVE ALREADY REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES JUST
NORTHEAST OF VIEQUES LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
THEN MOVE JUST NORTHEAST OF CULEBRA AND THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
HIGHER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY EXTEND OUT TO
COVER MOST OF THE EAST HALF OF PUERTO RICO...BUT WILL BE STRONGEST
IN ALL AREAS IN GUSTS AND SQUALLS AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
SURF AND TIDES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...EAST CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY REACH 8 TO 9 FEET AS THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WHICH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM
PASSES. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE MARINE FORECAST FOR FURTHER UPDATES. LOCAL SEAS WILL
BECOME VERY ROUGH AND CONFUSED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS...
STRONG RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO
INCREASED WAVE ACTION AND ONSHORE EAST SWELLS BEGINNING TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER FRINGES OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER ELEVEN SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EAST PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN OVER
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN NEARS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY BOTH THE
AREA COVERAGE AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE. ON ITS
CURRENT FORECAST PATH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST NORTH
EAST OF ST CROIX THIS EVENING AND NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS PROBABLE. THE
THREAT OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING AND OR RIVER
FLOODING WILL REMAIN HIGH AS THE DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM MOVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF GUTS AND
STREAMS. MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS STEEP TERRAINS.

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL THREAT TO LIFE AS RIVERS...CREEKS
AND SMALL STREAMS WILL RISE RAPIDLY AND THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN MUDSLIDES ACROSS STEEP TERRAINS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER ELEVEN CAN BE
FOUND IN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES.

...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS).

        HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 930 AM AST BY
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO.

SEELEY

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