[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 141012
HLSMOB
ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-141900-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA.  THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM MOBILE TO
DESTIN...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...
SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES
IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES
IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM CDT...THE EYE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED ABOUT
530 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA...OR NEAR
LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST.  IVAN WAS MOVING
NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR THE LATEST UP TO DATE EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND THE LATEST
CLOSINGS PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION AND\OR RADIO
STATIONS. THIS INFORMATION IS BEING UPDATED AS OFTEN AS IT IS
RECEIVED. RESIDENTS WHO PLAN ON EVACUATING SHOULD DO SO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE ALL OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT COULD
BECOME AIRBORNE AND BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IVAN
NEARS LANDFALL VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  STORM SURGE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 9 AND 13 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
COASTLINE AND 8 TO 11 FEET OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  WHEN
TIDE HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE 3 FEET THE CAUSEWAY AND THE WEST END OF
DAUPHIN ISLAND BEGINS TO FLOOD. TIDE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FEET WILL
ALSO FLOOD THE ROAD LEADING TO FORT PICKENS ON PENSACOLA BEACH IN
ESCAMBIA COUNTY.  IF THE SURGE REACHES 8 TO 10 FEET PORTIONS OF
DAUPHIN ISLAND WILL BE BREACHED AS WILL PARTS OF PENSACOLA BEACH.
STORM SURGE VALUES OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BE GREATER THAN OCCURRED
ACROSS THE AREA IN HURRICANE OPAL IN 1995 AND HURRICANE GEORGE IN
1998. THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THE NEAP PORTION OF THE TIDAL CYCLE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING SO HIGH TIDE VALUES WILL NOT ADD MUCH TO
THE SURGE VALUES.

...WIND IMPACT...
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF ALABAMA IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE ALONG THE THE SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA COASTS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THEN...HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS WILL ARRIVE BY MID EVENING AND SPREAD INLAND AS HURRICANE IVAN
CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRACK.  GIVEN THE CURRENT ORIENTATION AND
FORECAST TRACK OF IVAN...THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA CAN EXPECT AN ESTIMATED 30 TO 36 HOURS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND ABOUT 10 TO 15 HOURS OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS.  HURRICANE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD CEASE WITHIN
THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF BOTH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY AS IVAN MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA.  THE WIND IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR THE
INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.  WIND
ADVISORIES AND\OR WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY FOR INLAND
AREAS (IE.. NON-COASTAL COUNTIES).

IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH WINDS NEAR 160 MPH.
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME BEFORE LANDFALL THURSDAY MORNING BUT
STILL COULD BE A LOW END OF A CATEGORY 4 OR A CATEGORY 3 WHICH WOULD
BE THE STRONGEST HURRICANE TO AFFECT THE AREA IN OVER TEN YEARS.

...RIP CURRENT THREAT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS (INCLUDING THIS AFTERNOON!) DUE
TO HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FROM DAUPHIN
ISLAND TO DESTIN. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING OR
RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL THE EFFECTS OF IVAN ARE NO LONGER
AFFECTING THE REGION.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS (ESPECIALLY JUST EAST
OF IVAN'S TRACK).  IF IVAN SLOWS PRIOR TO AND AFTER LANDFALL...
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD EASILY APPROACH 20 INCHES ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.
PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS OR NEAR CREEKS OR
STREAMS SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING UNTIL IVAN HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA.  REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF THIS MAGNITUDE COMBINED WITH THESE EXPECTED
RAINFALL VALUES...WILL CREATE A CONDITION WHEREBY RIVERS WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO DRAIN AS NORMAL.  THUS...INLAND RIVER FLOODING MAY BECOME A
MAJOR PROBLEM ALONG AND EAST OF IVAN'S TRACK...ESPECIALLY IF IVAN
WERE TO SLOW DOWN AFTER LANDFALL.  THIS SITUATION IS BEING CLOSELY
MONITORED.

...TORNADO THREAT...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS OF IVAN...ESPECIALLY IN THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST
OF IVAN'S CENTER AS THE STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 1 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY.

MEDLIN

$$

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