[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 132043
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  84.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

24.2N  86.7W      39  X  X  X 39   ST MARKS FL        X  X  5  8 13
26.1N  87.6W       9 20  1  X 30   APALACHICOLA FL    X  1  8  6 15
28.2N  87.7W       X 16  7  2 25   PANAMA CITY FL     X  1 10  6 17
MUHA 230N 824W     1  1  X  X  2   PENSACOLA FL       X  1 13  5 19
MUAN 219N 850W    99  X  X  X 99   MOBILE AL          X  1 14  4 19
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  2  2   GULFPORT MS        X  2 13  5 20
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  3  3   BURAS LA           X  6 12  3 21
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  5  5   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  2 12  4 18
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  6  6   NEW IBERIA LA      X  1  7  5 13
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  5  5   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  1  6  7
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  3  3   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  4  4
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  2  2   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  3  3
KEY WEST FL        X  X  1  1  2   GULF 29N 85W       X  2  9  5 16
MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  1  2  3   GULF 29N 87W       X  7 13  2 22
FT MYERS FL        X  X  1  3  4   GULF 28N 89W       X 17  6  1 24
VENICE FL          X  X  2  4  6   GULF 28N 91W       X  7  7  3 17
TAMPA FL           X  X  2  5  7   GULF 28N 93W       X  1  3  4  8
CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  3  6  9   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  3  3

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM TUE TO  2AM WED
C FROM  2AM WED TO  2PM WED
D FROM  2PM WED TO  2PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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