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WTNT34 KNHC 132051
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 IVAN NEAR THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TONIGHT.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  84.9 WEST OR ABOUT   30 MILES...
45 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE
WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA IN A FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 220 MILES...350 KM. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS ABOVE 70 MPH WITH TREES AND
POWERLINES DOWN IN THE PINAR DEL RIO PROVINCE OF WESTERN CUBA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS  912 MB...26.93 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL...IF IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...21.3 N... 84.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 912 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

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