[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 132041
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON SEP 13 2004

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MARTEEN.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE.

AT 5 PM AST...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  60.4 WEST
OR ABOUT   70 MILES... 110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUADELOUPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS...POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N... 60.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


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