[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 071745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE 07 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IVAN IS CENTERED NEAR 11.8N 60.2W AT 07/1500 UTC WHICH
IS ABOUT 45 NM NE OF TOBAGO MOVING WEST AT 16 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED REMAINS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT AND THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC OR MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A SMALL CLEARLY DEFINED EYE THAT REDEVELOPED EARLIER HAS NOW
BEEN OBSCURED BY CLOUDS. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 56W-63W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 37W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15
KT. ROTATION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 33W-39W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 7N30W 4N37W 9N53W THEN DISTORTED
BY HURRICANE IVAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 23W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM FRANCES TO A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 23N94W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF FROM 85W-93W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
MID/UPPER LEVEL OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA..

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS GENERATING 40-50 KT NE WIND OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
14N72W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING MODERATE TO STRONG CON
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SW IF LINE 16N80W 11N75W.
THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING THE W CARIBBEAN TO BECOME EVEN MORE
UNSETTLED WHILE IVAN MOVES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM
SE U.S. COAST TO 26N62W. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM FRANCES
IS BEING ADVECTED CLOCKWISE AROUND THE RIDGE INTO W ATLC N OF
26N/27N W OF 65W AND INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF
26N FROM 40W-60W. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTEND FROM A 1009 MB
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N40W TO 30N37W SW TO 23N45W TO
TO 21N60W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N33W TO
24N38W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL EXTENDING FROM 24N60W TO HISPANIOLA.
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS CONTINUE OFF THE N COAST OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. OVER THE FAR E ATLC AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N22W TO 20N25W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
AN E TO W MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC FROM THE COAST
OF W AFRICA 16N19W 16N37W. UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS E OF IVAN NEAR
14N50W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLC FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 40W-55W.

$$
DGS




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