[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT34 KNHC 071756
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST TUE SEP 07 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN...WITH 120 MPH WINDS...MOVING THROUGH
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR TRINIDAD HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE
...AND ST. LUCIA AND TRINIDAD.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO AND ARUBA.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  61.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRENADA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. ON THIS THE
EYE OF IVAN WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER GRENADA SHORTLY AND THEN WILL
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

IVAN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. DATA FROM A NOAA P3 RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...
195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...IN A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE EYE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. BARBADOS HAS BEEN REPORTING HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS FOR SEVERAL HOUR AND JUST MEASURED A GUST TO 81 MPH...
130 KM/HR. HAM RADIO REPORTS INDICATE ROOFS BEING BLOWN OFF BY
WINDS ON TOBAGO...ST. VINCENT...AND GRENADA...AS WELL AS SOME
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN BARBADOS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 957 MB...28.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED AS IVAN PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...11.8 N... 60.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

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