[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 062018
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  84.3 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT THU SEP  9 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

33.0N  85.5W      40  X  X  X 40   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X  6  6
34.5N  85.0W      19  3  1  X 23   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X  5  5
36.0N  84.0W       2 10  4  2 18   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X  3  3
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  1  X  1  2   PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  X  2  2
JACKSONVILLE FL    3  3  X  1  7   BOSTON MA          X  X  X  2  2
SAVANNAH GA        3  5  1  1 10   CEDAR KEY FL       2  1  X  X  3
CHARLESTON SC      X  3  4  2  9   ST MARKS FL       99  X  X  X 99
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  1  4  3  8   APALACHICOLA FL   99  X  X  X 99
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  3  4  7   PANAMA CITY FL    24  X  1  X 25
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  1  5  6   PENSACOLA FL       6  1  X  X  7
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  X  5  5   MOBILE AL          1  1  X  X  2
NORFOLK VA         X  X  X  7  7   GULF 29N 85W       1  1  X  X  2
OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  X  7  7

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM TUE TO  2AM WED
C FROM  2AM WED TO  2PM WED
D FROM  2PM WED TO  2PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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