[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 062034
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON SEP 06 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  55.3 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM AST THU SEP  9 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

13.2N  61.5W      49  1  X  X 50   TIST 183N 650W     X  2 10  2 14
14.0N  64.4W       2 31  1  X 34   TJPS 180N 666W     X  1 15  3 19
15.0N  67.4W       X  5 21  1 27   MDSD 185N 697W     X  X  4 16 20
SKPG 125N 717W     X  X  1  5  6   MDCB 176N 714W     X  X  2 19 21
TNCC 122N 690W     X  X  7  3 10   MTPP 186N 724W     X  X  X 20 20
SVMG 110N 640W     1  7  1  X  9   MTCA 183N 738W     X  X  X 17 17
TTPP 106N 614W     5  1  X  X  6   MKJP 179N 768W     X  X  X  7  7
TTPT 112N 608W    17  1  X  X 18   MKJS 185N 779W     X  X  X  4  4
TGPY 120N 618W    30  3  X  X 33   MUGM 200N 751W     X  X  X 12 12
TBPB 131N 595W    68  X  X  X 68   MUCM 214N 779W     X  X  X  3  3
TVSV 131N 612W    52  X  X  X 52   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  1 12  3 16
TLPL 138N 610W    53  X  X  X 53   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  X 17 17
TFFF 146N 610W    43  1  1  X 45   MBJT 215N 712W     X  X  X 11 11
TDPR 153N 614W    26  7  X  X 33   MYMM 224N 730W     X  X  X  7  7
80400 157N 636W    2 27  1  X 30   MYSM 241N 745W     X  X  X  2  2
TFFR 163N 615W     6 13  X  X 19   MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  X  2  2
TAPA 171N 618W     1 10  1  X 12   ST CROIX VI        X  5 12  X 17
TKPK 173N 627W     X 11  3  X 14   ST THOMAS VI       X  2 10  2 14
TNCM 181N 631W     X  4  5  X  9   SAN JUAN PR        X  1 12  3 16
TISX 177N 648W     X  5 12  X 17   PONCE PR           X  1 15  3 19

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM TUE TO  2AM WED
C FROM  2AM WED TO  2PM WED
D FROM  2PM WED TO  2PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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