[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 060837
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT THU SEP  9 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

31.2N  85.5W      51  X  X  X 51   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  X  3  3
32.4N  85.8W      32  1  X  X 33   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X  2  2
33.9N  85.6W      10 11  3  1 25   VENICE FL          X  1  X  1  2
COCOA BEACH FL     X  1  X  1  2   TAMPA FL          99  X  X  X 99
DAYTONA BEACH FL   1  2  2  1  6   CEDAR KEY FL      99  X  X  X 99
JACKSONVILLE FL    4  4  2  2 12   ST MARKS FL       83  X  X  X 83
SAVANNAH GA        X  3  5  4 12   APALACHICOLA FL   84  X  X  X 84
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  3  6  9   PANAMA CITY FL    62  X  X  X 62
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  1  6  7   PENSACOLA FL      22  1  1  X 24
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  6  6   MOBILE AL          9  3  1  X 13
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X  4  4   GULFPORT MS        2  2  1  1  6
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  X  3  3   GULF 29N 85W      74  X  X  X 74
NORFOLK VA         X  X  X  4  4   GULF 29N 87W      10  1  X  1 12

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
C FROM  2PM TUE TO  2AM WED
D FROM  2AM WED TO  2AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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