[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 060847
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER  50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

...FRANCES GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE WARM WATERS
OF THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND NORTHWARD TO DESTIN.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.  ALSO...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SOUTH
OF COCOA BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM SOUTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO ENGLEWOOD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST AND THE GEORGIA COAST FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD
TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.5 WEST OR ABOUT
115 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FRANCES SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND FRANCES
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN JUST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS.

FRANCES REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 55 MPH WITH A GUST 67 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT A C-MAN WEATHER STATION LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH WITH A GUST
54 MPH WAS REPORTED AT CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH
WITH A GUST TO 55 MPH WAS REPORTED EARLIER THIS MORNING AT ST.
AUGUSTINE ON THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH FLORIDA EAST COAST...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ON MONDAY.  ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS. STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF
TARPON SPRINGS...ESPECIALLY AT THE HEAD OF APALACHEE BAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE WIDE PATH OF FRANCES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 83.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 981 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


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