[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 051436
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  81.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM EDT WED SEP  8 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

29.0N  83.9W      49  X  X  X 49   TAMPA FL          64  X  X  X 64
30.3N  85.2W      22 10  X  1 33   CEDAR KEY FL      61  X  X  X 61
32.0N  86.0W       X 19  4  1 24   ST MARKS FL       37  2  X  X 39
W PALM BEACH FL   99  X  X  X 99   APALACHICOLA FL   33  3  X  X 36
FT PIERCE FL      99  X  X  X 99   PANAMA CITY FL    19 11  X  1 31
COCOA BEACH FL    99  X  X  X 99   PENSACOLA FL       1 17  2  1 21
DAYTONA BEACH FL  53  X  X  X 53   MOBILE AL          X  9  6  1 16
JACKSONVILLE FL   25  X  X  1 26   GULFPORT MS        X  4  6  2 12
SAVANNAH GA        1  6  4  3 14   BURAS LA           X  2  3  1  6
CHARLESTON SC      X  1  3  6 10   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  1  3  1  5
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  1  6  7   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  1  1  2
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  5  5   GULF 29N 85W      35  X  X  X 35
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X  3  3   GULF 29N 87W       3 13  1  X 17
FT MYERS FL        4  X  X  X  4   GULF 28N 89W       X  1  1  1  3
VENICE FL         32  X  1  X 33

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM MON TO  8PM MON
C FROM  8PM MON TO  8AM TUE
D FROM  8AM TUE TO  8AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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