[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT41 KNHC 051436
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004

RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION OF FRANCES CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN PRACTICALLY ALL QUADRANTS. IN FACT...
GRAND BAHAMA IS STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...AND WINDS HAVE REACHED 40 TO 45 KNOTS IN FEEDER BANDS OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

THE CENTER OF FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE BETWEEN THE
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THEN EMERGE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS. INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 80 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AS IT MOVES OVER LAND...BUT IT COULD THEN
REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS ONCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BECAUSE FRANCES HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND IS EXPECTED TO
BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS...A
HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF
OF MEXICO COAST.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/1500Z 27.7N  81.2W    80 KT   INLAND
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 28.2N  82.3W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 29.0N  83.9W    65 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 30.3N  85.2W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 32.0N  86.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 35.0N  85.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 38.5N  82.5W    20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     10/1200Z 42.0N  79.0W    20 KT...INLAND


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