[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 051448
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER  47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004

...FRANCES HITTING FLORIDA HARD...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO
DESTIN.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE PENINSULA TO DEERFIELD BEACH...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER
BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  81.2 WEST...ABOUT 25
MILES NORTHEAST OF SEBRING AND 80 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPA
FLORIDA.

THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 9 MPH.  A CONTINUED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS
THE PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRANCES SHOULD MOVE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CORE OF FRANCES
MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
STILL POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MADE
LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS
EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF FLORIDA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...27.7 N... 81.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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