[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 050601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN 05 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN  SECTIONS
OF S AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE FRANCES AT 2 AM EDT/0600 UTC...IS NEAR 27.2N 80.3W OR
ABOUT 7MILES WEST OF STUART FLORIDA. FRANCES IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
MEASURED IS 960 MB. THE EYE OFFICIALLY MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 0100
AM EDT NEAR SEWALL'S POINT FLORIDA WHICH IS IN THE VICINITY OF
STUART...JENSEN BEACH...AND PORT SALERNO FLORIDA. SEE LATEST NHC
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
AND THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. OUTFLOW HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS BUT IS STILL LIMITED ON THE W SIDE. BANDS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA
FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 76W-82W WHICH IS ALMOST TO THE WEST COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM IVAN IS CENTERED NEAR 9.4N 42.2W AT 05/0300 UTC
MOVING W AT 16 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991
MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF IVAN TO
HURRICANE STATUS IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 8N41W-11N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 6N43W
10N46W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W/75W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
AXIS CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY LOCATE AS BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ADDITIONALLY...WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA IS MASKING THE WAVE AXIS.

WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED 300 NM OFF THE COAST OF N SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 9N18W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 12N10W 8N27W 10N40W 6N57W.
OTHER THAN T.S. IVAN...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N SIERRA LEONE/E GUINEA AND WITHIN 75
NM ALONG THE COAST FROM 8N-11N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION DOT THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM 1N-12N BETWEEN 9W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TWO SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER S TEXAS AND THE W GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 28N100W...WITH THE WEAKER ONE CENTERED NEAR
23N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N82W
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME WESTERLY SHEAR INTO HURRICANE
FRANCES. THE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FRANCES IS
SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA TO THE W COAST OF THE PENINSULA.
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRY SURFACE AIR IS LIMITING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE FRANCES.

W ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 11N FROM
67W-86W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
14N62W WITH FLOW COVERING THE AREA SO F 20N FROM 59W-67W.
EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 60W-74W.

EASTER/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS A TROUGH...
RIDGE...TROUGH PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. WEAK UPPER
LOW IS NEAR 27N53W AND A MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 21N58W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM 31N47W THRU A
1013 MB LOW NEAR 26N46W TO 19N49W. A BROAD  UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
NEAR 20N47W EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. WELL DEFINED
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N28W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 15N8W WITH THE
FLOW FROM 4N-28N E OF 20W. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER T.S. IVAN IS
FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 38W-51W.

$$
WALLACE


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