[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KMLB 032140
HLSMLB
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
040400-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
538 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004


...HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA COAST...
...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING FOR ALL INTERIOR COUNTIES OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...HURRICANE WARNING FROM SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FLORIDA CITY
INCLUDING ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN
BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...
ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN
AND OKEECHOBEE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO
FLORIDA CITY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL COUNTIES...AND ALSO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE
...INLAND VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND MAY
BE EXTENDED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST.


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FRANCES IS STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE AND HEADING FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA...
MAKING THIS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR FRANCES
SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY NOW. AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL ON SATURDAY
PEOPLE IN AND CLOSE TO THE HURRICANE EYE WALL SHOULD TAKE SHELTER
IN A SMALL ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR SUCH AS A CLOSET OR BATHROOM.
PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
SHOULD NOT WAIT UNTIL MORNING TO SEEK SHELTER.  EVACUATE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL BUILDING OFF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS MUCH GREATER FOR PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE
CHARLEY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH FRANCES ARE NEAR 115 MPH.
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN BEFORE...FRANCES IS STILL A MAJOR
HURRICANE...WITH SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY POSSIBLE.

IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK OF FRANCES. FRANCES IS A VERY LARGE
HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT EVEN SOME INLAND LOCATIONS
ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WINDS NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WITH
WINDS OF THIS STRENGTH...LARGE TREES ARE BLOWN DOWN WITH EXTENSIVE
DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIALS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS. SMALL STRUCTURES
MAY EXPERIENCE COMPLETE ROOF FAILURES...WITH SOME MOBILE HOMES
EXPERIENCING COMPLETE DESTRUCTION.

RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS HAVE ALREADY MADE LANDFALL BETWEEN PALM
BEACH AND VERO BEACH.  THOUGH WELL AHEAD OF FRANCES...THESE RAIN
BANDS CAN PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE
AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
HIGH. 6 TO 9 FEET OF SURGE WILL BE COMMON...WITH HIGHEST SURGE LEVELS
OF 9 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS....MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE
RIGHT OF WHERE THE EYE OF FRANCES MOVES ONSHORE. BATTERING WAVES WILL
BE OF GREAT CONCERN ALONG THE BEACHES GIVEN THE HIGH WINDS SPEEDS AND
DURATION...WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVE DAMAGE ALSO LIKELY IN THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
ONE OF THE MORE DANGEROUS ASPECTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE
FLOODING. THE SLOWER FRANCES MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA...THE GREATER
THE FLOOD THREAT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND MAY BE EXTENDED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. 8 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS
FRANCES CROSSES THE STATE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 18 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTER TRACK. PLACES ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS WILL
BE MOST VULNERABLE TO SERIOUS FLOODING. RESIDENTS ALONG THE SAINT
JOHNS RIVER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR NEAR RECORD FLOODING IF EXCESSIVE
RAIN DEVELOPS.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
THE MARINE THREAT TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS
EXTREME. TROPICAL STORM WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO HURRICANE
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE TORNADO THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS NOT AS GREAT AS WITH
HURRICANE CHARLEY. TORNADOES ARE LESS LIKELY WITH LANDFALLING
ATLANTIC HURRICANES IN FLORIDA BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. TORNADOES MAY BE THE FIRST THREAT TO ARRIVE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS...ESPECIALLY TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER TRACK AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE COAST. OF
COURSE...TORNADOES WITHIN THE INNER RAINBANDS AND EYEWALL WILL LIKELY
OCCUR.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT
OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE
MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB

$$

DECKER

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