[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KMFL 032210
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>068-070>074-040400-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
609 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

...STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PERSONS IN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE...
COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...INCLUDING METRO PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
COUNTIES.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY
EXCEPT COASTAL COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 170 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
WEST PALM BEACH...OR ABOUT 160 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI BEACH.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A WEST NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. FRANCES REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SQUALLS WILL INCREASE IN FREQUENCY AND STRENGTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SUNDOWN. THE RISK FROM HURRICANE
FRANCES...ESPECIALLY IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...WILL BE LONG IN DURATION LASTING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

EVACUATION ORDERS IN THE METRO AREAS OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. CALL YOUR LOCAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HOTLINE
NUMBERS AVAILABLE ON COMMERCIAL TELEVISION AND RADIO FOR DETAILED INFORMATION.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE ACTUAL STORM SURGE WILL DEPEND ENTIRELY UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF
FRANCES CROSSES THE COAST. AT PRESENT...FRANCES IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL
STILL BE ONSHORE FOR A TIME SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE FOR
PALM BEACH COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FROM
AROUND 8 AM TO NOON SATURDAY. STORM TIDE IS A COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE FROM
THE HURRICANE AND THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS. THE PRIMARY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDE FOR THE LAKE WORTH AREA WILL BE AROUND NOON SATURDAY. IN MUST BE EMPHASIZED
THAT IF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE ACTUALLY COMES INLAND FARTHER SOUTH...
THE STORM TIDE COULD BE AS HIGH AS 9.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL NEAR AND NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE LAKE LEVEL TODAY IS 13.6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL
WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK...THE WATER WOULD BE PUSHED UP AS MUCH AS 6 TO 8 FEET HIGHER ON THE LAKE
SIDE OF THE DIKE IN GLADES...HENDRY...AND WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THIS
WOULD AFFECT AREAS FROM THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK ALL THE WAY AROUND TO
THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE INCLUDING MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...SOUTH BAY ...
BELLE GLADE...PAHOKEE AND PORT MAYACA. THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE INSIDE HOOVER DIKE
IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20 TO 22 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THE HOOVER DIKE
PROTECTS INHABITED AREAS TO AT LEAST 30 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. RITTA...
KREAMER AND TORRY ISLANDS WOULD BE FLOODED AT THESE LEVELS INCLUDING SOME
CAMPGROUNDS AND ROADS. IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE EXACT IMPACT ON THE LAKE
STILL DEPENDS ON HOW CLOSE AND FROM WHAT DIRECTION FRANCES APPROACHES THE LAKE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WIND GUSTS FROM 50 TO 70 MPH...IN SQUALLS...WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT AS
RAINBANDS MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
REACHING SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE
TREES TO UPROOT OR LARGE LIMBS TO BREAK WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOCALIZED
POWER OUTAGES. OVER NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...WINDS WILL REACH HURRICANE
FORCE ON SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS OVER INLAND
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE. IF
FRANCES SHOULD MOVE DIRECTLY TO THE WEST...THE WIND IMPACT WOULD SUDDENLY
INCREASE AND PERSONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR
VIGILANCE.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS OF PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...
WINDS WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND HURRICANE
FORCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MUST BE
EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF
FRANCES. SHOULD THE TRACK CHANGE THE MARINE IMPACTS WOULD CHANGE GREATLY.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRANCES MEANS THAT RAINFALL WILL BE VERY HEAVY AND FLOODING
IS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO
20 INCHES AND MORE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SIMILAR VERY SLOW MOVING HURRICANES.
RAINBANDS WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HEAVIER RAINFALL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
BEFORE DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FORECAST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY IN PALM BEACH COUNTY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 8 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12
INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS CLOSER TO WHERE FRANCES CROSSES THE COASTLINE. IN
GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT COASTAL
COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A THREAT OF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF FRANCES. THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

$$

LUSHINE/PFOST
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