[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KJAX 032132
HLSJAX
FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-040330-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
530 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

...FRANCES CONTINUES ON TRACK TOWARD FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ISSUED ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST.
JOHNS...FLAGLER...BAKER...CLAY...PUTNAM...MARION...HAMILTON...
COLUMBIA...SUWANNEE...UNION...BRADFORD...ALACHUA AND GILCHRIST. IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CAMDEN...GLYNN...WAYNE...BRANTLEY...CHARLTON...
APPLING...BACON...PIERCE...WARE...CLINCH...ECHOLS...ATKINSON...
COFFEE AND JEFF DAVIS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND
AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

...STORM INFORMATION...
THE COMBINATION OF WATCH AND WARNING ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT A SHIFT IN TRACK TO THE RIGHT COULD RESULT IN HURRICANE
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE FRANCES BRINGS THE CENTER
INLAND SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AREA...THERE IS ALWAYS
UNCERTAINLY IN THE TRACK AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING
HURRICANE CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE WATCH AREA. WHILE NO WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...THE THREAT
OF FLOODING RAINFALL AND TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP AS THE STORM MOVES
CLOSER OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
145 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND 200
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST.

FRANCES HAS BEEN WOBBLING BUT IN GENERAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR FAMILYS HURRICANE PLAN AND HURRICANE KIT. MARINE
INTERESTS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLANS. INTERESTS IN NORMALLY
FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY WISH TO SECURE PROPERTY WHICH COULD BE FLOODED.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THOUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF A NORMAL
TIDE ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANY TRACK DEVIATION TO
THE NORTH MAY RESULT IN HIGHER TIDES LOCALLY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THESE WINDS ARE A RESULT OF AN
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE CIRCULATION OF FRANCES AND ARE NOT DIRECTLY A RESULT OF THE
HURRICANE.

DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM AT
LANDFALL...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AS WELL AS PUTNAM AND MARION
COUNTIES DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF
NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  GENERAL WIND SPEEDS COULD
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OVER
THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. AT THIS
TIME...SUSTAINED WINDS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WINDS OVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL
WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELL...SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR 12 FEET TODAY AND TO OVER 20 FEET BY SUNDAY. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WILL SEE
WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MILES PER HOUR WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
CONTINUING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
HURRICANE FRANCES POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS IT MOVES INLAND. SOME AREAS ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH
COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS
15 TO 20 INCHES. RAIN BANDS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY... AND HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE WILL BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS THE STORM MOVES BY
THE AREA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. REMEMBER EVEN A WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING TORNADOES. REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 PM EDT.

$$

LETRO

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