[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 031446
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.7 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM EDT MON SEP  6 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

27.0N  79.0W      49  X  X  X 49   KEY WEST FL        1  1  1  3  6
27.5N  80.0W      35  1  X  X 36   MARCO ISLAND FL    6  6  2  1 15
28.5N  81.5W       4 15  3  2 24   FT MYERS FL        6  8  2  2 18
MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  1  2  3   VENICE FL          2 10  3  3 18
MYNN 251N 775W    99  X  X  X 99   TAMPA FL           1 12  5  2 20
MYGF 266N 787W    53  X  X  X 53   CEDAR KEY FL       X  8  9  3 20
MARATHON FL        2  3  1  2  8   ST MARKS FL        X  1 10  6 17
MIAMI FL          19  1  1  X 21   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  8  7 15
W PALM BEACH FL   32  X  X  1 33   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  6  8 14
FT PIERCE FL      30  2  X  X 32   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  1  9 10
COCOA BEACH FL    19  7  1  1 28   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  7  7
DAYTONA BEACH FL   3 15  4  2 24   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  5  5
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  6 11  4 21   BURAS LA           X  X  X  3  3
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  8  8 16   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  2  2
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  3  9 12   GULF 29N 85W       X  1  7  6 14
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  1  6  7   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  2  7  9
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  4  4   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  2  2
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM SAT TO  8PM SAT
C FROM  8PM SAT TO  8AM SUN
D FROM  8AM SUN TO  8AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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