[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT41 KNHC 031446
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OR EYEWALL
OF FRANCES HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS RISEN TO 959 MB. IN ADDITION...SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING SOME SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE
DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS MEANS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...FRANCES IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THERE IS PLENTY
OF TIME...ABOUT 36 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...FOR CHANGES IN THE INNER
STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE TO OCCUR...WHILE THE HURRICANE MOVES
OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO
RE-INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
CALLS FOR A 100-KNOT HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

FRANCES IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ABOUT 8
KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST  TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FORCING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...BUT BECAUSE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER...THE HURRICANE
WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN ON ITS WAY TO FLORIDA. THIS COULD DELAY THE
LANDFALL A FEW MORE HOURS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING
THE HURRICANE OVER FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.

BECAUSE FRANCES IS A SLOW MOVING HURRICANE...IT COULD BRING
TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/1500Z 25.5N  76.7W   100 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 26.3N  77.6W   100 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 27.0N  79.0W   100 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 27.5N  80.0W   100 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 28.5N  81.5W    55 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 30.5N  83.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 33.5N  85.9W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     08/1200Z 38.0N  84.5W    25 KT...INLAND


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