[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 031507
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

...WIND GUSTS OF 115 MPH IN THE ABACOS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.  A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH
OF FLAGLER BEACH NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z..THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES...65 KM...NORTHWEST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND AND 220 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.  A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. ELEUTHERA IS NOW REPORTING WESTERLY WINDS OF
NEAR  60 MPH...96 KM/HR AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 958 MB...28.30
INCHES. LITTLE HARBOR IN THE ABACOS JUST REPORTED A WIND GUST OF
115 MPH...185 KM/HR.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND...AND
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...25.5 N... 76.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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