[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 021436
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU SEP 02 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING FOR FLORIDA...HURRICANE
WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER
BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALL THE BAHAMAS.

AT 11 AM AST...AST THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90
KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR...AND 450 MILES... 725 KM...EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA EAST COAST.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRANCES REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS IS CURRENTLY
REPORTING 63 MPH...102 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND...AND
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...23.4 N... 73.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

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