[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 021436
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU SEP 02 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  73.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM AST SUN SEP  5 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

25.5N  77.2W      50  X  X  X 50   MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  4  4
26.4N  78.5W      25  7  X  1 33   WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  2  2
27.0N  79.7W       3 19  1  2 25   KEY WEST FL        X  3  2  3  8
MYMM 224N 730W    99  X  X  X 99   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  7  5  4 16
MYSM 241N 745W    99  X  X  X 99   FT MYERS FL        X  6  7  4 17
MYEG 235N 758W    60  X  X  X 60   VENICE FL          X  3  8  6 17
MYAK 241N 776W    32  X  X  X 32   TAMPA FL           X  1 10  6 17
MYNN 251N 775W    45  X  X  X 45   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  6 10 16
MYGF 266N 787W    18 12  X  1 31   ST MARKS FL        X  X  1 12 13
MARATHON FL        X  6  2  3 11   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  1 11 12
MIAMI FL           3 13  2  1 19   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X 10 10
W PALM BEACH FL    2 17  2  2 23   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  6  6
FT PIERCE FL       X 16  4  2 22   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  4  4
COCOA BEACH FL     X  9  8  4 21   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  3  3
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  2 10  6 18   BURAS LA           X  X  X  2  2
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  3 12 15   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  1 11 12
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X 10 10   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  7  7
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  7  7   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  3  3

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM FRI TO  8PM FRI
C FROM  8PM FRI TO  8AM SAT
D FROM  8AM SAT TO  8AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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