[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT41 KNHC 021435
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

THE HURRICANE REMAINS VERY WELL-ORGANIZED AND SATELLITE IMAGES
DEPICT A DISTINCT EYE AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 127 KNOTS AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASUREMENTS. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 125
KNOTS.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE
INTENSITY SOON. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED BEFORE
LANDFALL BUT FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE.

THE MOST INTERESTING ASPECT THIS MORNING IS THAT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...GFS...AND GFDL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND ARE NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. NOW THAT THE RELIABLE
GFS AND GFDL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS...THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER. FRANCES IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS ARE HOLDING THE
RIDGE STRONG AND LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO. BECAUSE FRANCES HAS A
LARGE WIND FIELD AND THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER THAN THE EYE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO ALLOW
SUFFICIENT TIME FOR PREPARATIONS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/1500Z 23.4N  73.9W   125 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 24.3N  75.4W   125 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 25.5N  77.2W   125 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 26.4N  78.5W   125 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 27.0N  79.7W   125 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 28.5N  82.0W    70 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 30.5N  84.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     07/1200Z 34.0N  86.5W    25 KT...INLAND


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