[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KMLB 021454
HLSMLB
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
022200-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING FOR FLORIDA EAST COAST...

...ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS MUST BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY...

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FROM FLORIDA CITY TO FLAGLER BEACH
INCLUDING ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING ISSUED FOR INTERIOR COUNTIES OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN
BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...
ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN
AND OKEECHOBEE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO
FLORIDA CITY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL COUNTIES...AND ALSO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE
...INLAND VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE
IN SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!!!
PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST BE RUSHING THEIR HURRICANE PLANS
TO COMPLETION TODAY. TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE DAY TIME HOURS AND
GOOD WEATHER TODAY. FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...AND
LEAVE IMMEDIATELY IF TOLD TO DO SO. IF YOU LIVE ON THE BARRIER
ISLANDS OR IN A MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED HOME OR A FLOOD PRONE AREA YOU
SHOULD SECURE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND EVACUATE. IF YOU ARE
EVACUATING THE AREA...LEAVE AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE THREAT IS
MUCH GREATER FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED
WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH FRANCES ARE
NEAR 145 MPH...BUT SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WILL BE LIKELY. IT
IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK OF FRANCES. FRANCES IS A VERY LARGE
HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT SOME LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. WITH CATEGORY FOUR FORCE
WINDS...LARGE TREES ARE BLOWN DOWN WITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFING
MATERIALS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS. WELL BUILT HOMES WITHOUT HURRICANE
SHUTTERS OR WINDOW COVERINGS CAN SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE. SMALL
STRUCTURES MAY EXPERIENCE COMPLETE ROOF FAILURES...WITH MOBILE HOMES
EXPERIENCING COMPLETE DESTRUCTION.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MOVING
ONSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE
STRONGEST WINDS AROUND THE CORE OF FRANCES WILL MAKE LANDFALL
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
EXTREME. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE EYE OF FRANCES MOVES
ONSHORE. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRANCES AT LEAST
TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING HURRICANE CONDITIONS.
SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVE DAMAGE IS LIKELY IN THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
THE FLOOD THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE THREAT OF
FLOODING IS MUCH GREATER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE
CHARLEY. TEN TO TWELVE INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS FRANCES CROSSES
THE STATE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF
FRANCES...AND THAT IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE
PENINSULA. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTER TRACK. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PLACES ALREADY
SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO SERIOUS
FLOODING. RESIDENTS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR FLOODING IF EXCESSIVE RAIN DEVELOPS. SANDBAGS ARE AVAILABLE AT
MANY COUNTY LOCATIONS FOR RESIDENTS.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
THE MARINE THREAT TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS
EXTREME. FRANCES IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRIDAY...
THEN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. AN
INCREASING EASTERLY SWELL WILL ALSO PRECEDE THE HURRICANE TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...INCREASING TO HURRICANE CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE TORNADO THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS MODERATE. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR TORNADOES. IMPORTANTLY...TORNADOES
MAY BE THE FIRST THREAT TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
CENTER TRACK AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE COAST. OF COURSE...TORNADOES
WITHIN THE INNER RAINBANDS AND EYEWALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE
MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB

$$

HAGEMEYER
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net