[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 161544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161543
VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-161745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0800
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023

Areas affected...Central/Eastern KY...Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 161543Z - 161745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
increase over the next few hours as the developing line of storms
continues into central KY and northern middle TN. Damaging wind
gusts are expected, with some chance for isolated hail and a brief
tornado as well.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery has shown an increase in
reflectivity over the past hour or so near a surface low moving
northeastward along the IN/KY border vicinity. The air mass ahead of
the low (and the attendant cold front stretching back southwestward
from the low) is characterized by temperatures in the mid to upper
70s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Mid-level lapse rates
over the region are not overly steep, but the moderate buoyancy is
still anticipated as temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s.
Northern extent of the buoyancy (and attendant severe risk) will be
confined by the ongoing showers and embedded thunderstorms over the
middle OH Valley.

Expectation is for the developing line of storms to continue
strengthening as they progress into the destabilizing air mass
downstream. Deep-layer flow is sufficient for some maturation into
an organized convective line capable of producing damaging gusts.
Some hail is also possible, particularly if an cell mergers occur.
The tornado risk appears low, given the veered low-level flow, but
still non-zero, with some potential for embedded meso vorticies.
Highest tornado potential would likely be on the northern end of the
line, where slightly backed low-level is more probable and some
interaction with preceding storm outflow is possible.

..Mosier/Leitman.. 05/16/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37318742 38018628 38158538 37998386 37408334 36718356
            36068410 35918492 35978577 36168658 36768749 37318742
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