[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 161956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161956
WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-162130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0804
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023

Areas affected...Central/Eastern KY...Middle/Northeast TN...Far
Southern WV...Far Western VA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225...

Valid 161956Z - 162130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and brief
tornadoes will continue across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225 for the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...An ongoing convective line extends from north-central
VA back southwestward to about 30 miles north-northwest of BNA along
the TN/KY border. Northern portion of this line over central KY is
more orthogonal to mean flow and has shown more forward
propagation/greater eastward motion over the past hour or so. This
trend is expected to persist, particularly as forward propagation is
further encouraged when the line interacts with preceding cells. All
severe hazards remain possible, with damaging gusts most likely.

Additionally, discrete cells ahead of the line will also be capable
of all severe hazards. Damaging gusts will be the main hazards with
these cells as well, but with a slightly greater likelihood of
updrafts capable of hail than those in the convective line.
Low-level circulations have also been noted, mostly as discrete
cells interact with the remnant outflow boundary across east-central
KY.

Farther west (across south-central KY), the line becomes
increasingly orientated parallel to the mean flow. Even so, it has
maintained 30-35 kt of easterly motion thus far. Several downdraft
surges have been noted thus far, with an overall trend towards more
southeasterly motion. Damaging gusts will remain possible with this
portion of the line for the next few hours.

..Mosier.. 05/16/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36698683 37018513 37788378 37908228 37688150 36498200
            35968564 36698683
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