[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 151827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151827
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-152030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0798
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Areas affected...Southern Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 151827Z - 152030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clustering is probable over the next few
hours across southern Tennessee into adjacent portions of northern
Alabama and northwest Georgia.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, scattered thunderstorms have
developed across Middle TN along a diffuse warm frontal zone. Much
of this activity has been rather short-lived with periodic intense
updraft pulses followed by rapid weakening; a consequence of the
weakly sheared environment. However, temperatures warming into the
low 80s has allowed for surface-based parcels to reach their
convective temperatures, which will foster additional convective
development along outflows and/or within the frontal zone. While
sporadic/isolated damaging downburst winds are possible with more
intense, but transient, cells, a somewhat more organized wind threat
may emerge if cold pool amalgamation can lead to more organized
clustering. Based on latest radar trends, this appears most probable
along the TN/AL border through the late afternoon hours downstream
from a region with a higher concentration of disorganized convection
(where cold pool consolidation is most probable). Given the overall
poor organization of the convection and weak kinematic fields, watch
issuance is not expected.

..Moore/Leitman.. 05/15/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35408876 35758866 35988837 35958777 35768565 35578522
            35098511 34588536 34258595 34278667 34588810 35118866
            35408876
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