[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 090611
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090611
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-090845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0737
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 AM CDT Tue May 09 2023

Areas affected...Tennessee Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 090611Z - 090845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to continue for a
few more hours across far northeast Arkansas and Tennessee. Hail and
isolated wind damage will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Nashville shows a
broken line of strong thunderstorms located from southern Kentucky
into western Tennessee and far northeast Arkansas. Surface dewpoints
ahead of the line are from 65 to 70 F, and MLCAPE is estimated to be
between 2000 and 2500 J/kg by the RAP. In addition, the Nashville
88D-VWP has 30 knot of 0-6 km shear with some directional shear from
the surface to one kilometer above ground level. This should be
enough to continue an isolated wind-damage threat for a few more
hours. Hail could also accompany the stronger updrafts.

..Broyles/Grams.. 05/09/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36198559 36608552 37088616 37148730 36738782 36068892
            35799037 35429090 34939043 34828907 35388678 35738604
            36198559
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