[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010252
TNZ000-KYZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-010445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0952 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...western Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 97...

Valid 010252Z - 010445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 97 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues. Potential for large hail and a
few tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms across western Tennessee has shown
better organization in the last hour. Embedded supercell structures
have been observed on radar. Storms are advancing eastward into an
increasingly favorable low-level shear. The VAD profile at KNQA has
becoming elongated and linear in the lower 1 km while still
maintaining some curvature. Further east, low level shear profiles
remain large with curvature in the low levels. The VAD profile at
KOHX (Nashville, TN) is observing 0-1km shear around 700 m2/s2,
though instability does wane with eastward extent into Middle
Tennessee. Large hail will be the main threat with the line across
western Tennessee, with increasing risk for tornadoes as it
continues to track eastward. The tornado risk will continue with any
discrete cells (such as those near Memphis west of Waynesboro
Tennessee.)

..Thornton/Edwards.. 04/01/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35568998 36028930 36438886 36538809 36478769 36168771
            35568780 35368791 35208803 35138820 35098899 34988983
            35069015 35319011 35379010 35568998
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