[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010420
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010420
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-MSZ000-010615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0422
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...Kentucky...Tennessee...Northeast
Mississippi...Northern Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 97...98...

Valid 010420Z - 010615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 97, 98 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will continue for several more hours across
the Tennessee Valley. The threat will likely increase in middle
Tennessee, northeast Mississippi, northwest Alabama and in
south-central Kentucky. Tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will
be possible. Weather watch issuance may become necessary to the east
of WW 97 and WW 98.

DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar from Nashville shows a broken
line of strong to severe storms, extending from northern Mississippi
northeastward into western Tennessee and southwest Kentucky. The
line contains several supercells and bowing line segments, some
which are producing tornadoes and wind damage. The storms are
located to the east of axis of moderate instability, and just east
of the southern extension of a 50 to 70 knot low-level jet.

RAP forecast soundings across middle Tennessee late this evening
have long and looped hodographs, with 0-6 km shear near 70 knots and
0-3 km storm-relative helicity above 600 m2/s2. The strong low-level
shear will continue to be favorable for the maintenance of low-level
mesocyclones. The more dominant supercells may produce tornadoes,
with strong tornadoes possible. Wind damage will also be likely with
supercells, and bowing line segments. Swaths of damaging winds will
be most likely with fast-moving bow echoes. Large hail may also
accompany the stronger updrafts.

..Broyles.. 04/01/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   38178549 37878651 36968742 35808842 34758904 33928832
            33868687 34748593 37008441 37878444 38178549
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