[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 312229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312228
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-010000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0411
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...northern Mississippi...far northwestern
Alabama...and Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 312228Z - 010000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A Tornado Watch will be issued within the hour downstream
of WW94.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms across western Arkansas and eastern
Tennessee will gradually continue to track eastward, with additional
development expected downstream, over the next several hours. The
environment is expected to become increasingly favorable for
tornadoes, a few of which may be strong. Upstream SRH profiles
observed at KNQA (Memphis, Tennessee) indicate 0-1 km SRH around 560
m2/s2. Large curving hodographs will support the potential for
long-track supercells with risk of strong tornadoes. This
environment will translate downstream into Middle Tennessee and
northern Mississippi/Alabama over the next 1-3 hours as surface
destabilization occurs. A downstream Tornado Watch will be issued
within an hour.

..Thornton/Edwards.. 03/31/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33649038 34148991 35698888 36468830 36688761 36628668
            36418628 36088620 35668630 35278656 34678707 33968758
            33508808 33168846 32918877 32778910 32838959 33079033
            33649038
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