[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 312042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312042
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-312215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...AR into parts of the MS/TN Valleys

Concerning...Tornado Watch 94...

Valid 312042Z - 312215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for tornadic supercells will continue into the
early evening, with a continued risk of strong tornadoes. Downstream
watch issuance may be needed prior to 00Z.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells is ongoing at 2030 UTC near and
east of Little Rock, with the lead supercell having earlier produced
an apparent strong tornado near/north of Little Rock. This supercell
cluster will continue to move east-northeastward toward the MS
River, with additional supercell development expected with
convection now developing across western AR. The lead supercell
cluster will be moving through the strongest low-level shear
environment into early evening, with the low-level jet expected to
become maximized near the MS Valley region. Strong tornadoes will
remain possible with this cluster into eastern AR, western TN, and
northwest MS.

Farther west, some veering of low-level flow has been noted, but
moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) and very strong
deep-layer shear (effective shear of 70+ kt) will continue to be
very favorable for discrete supercells. All severe hazards will
remain possible with any supercells that develop across western AR
and move east-northeastward into early evening, with low-level
flow/shear remaining sufficient to support a strong tornado threat
with any longer-lived supercells.

The severe thunderstorm threat will begin to spread east of WW 94 by
early evening, and downstream watch issuance will likely be needed
prior to 00Z.

..Dean/Hart.. 03/31/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   34569438 35329413 35929326 36239151 36888779 34808776
            34188874 33928957 33749092 33609230 33539315 33519409
            33939439 34569438
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